How Is Public Opinion Measured American Government

Leo Migdal

-Nov 24, 2025, 11:14 AM

how is public opinion measured american government

Chapter 6: The Politics of Public Opinion By the end of this section, you will be able to: Polling has changed over the years. The first opinion poll was taken in 1824; it asked voters how they voted as they left their polling places. Informal polls are called straw polls, and they informally collect opinions of a non-random population or group. Newspapers and social media continue the tradition of unofficial polls, mainly because interested readers want to know how elections will end.

Facebook and online newspapers often offer informal, pop-up quizzes that ask a single question about politics or an event. The poll is not meant to be formal, but it provides a general idea of what the readership thinks. Modern public opinion polling is relatively new, only eighty years old. These polls are far more sophisticated than straw polls and are carefully designed to probe what we think, want, and value. The information they gather may be relayed to politicians or newspapers, and is analyzed by statisticians and social scientists. As the media and politicians pay more attention to the polls, an increasing number are put in the field every week.

Most public opinion polls aim to be accurate, but this is not an easy task. Political polling is a science. From design to implementation, polls are complex and require careful planning and care. Mitt Romney’s campaign polls are only a recent example of problems stemming from polling methods. Our history is littered with examples of polling companies producing results that incorrectly predicted public opinion due to poor survey design or bad polling methods. By the end of this section, you will be able to:

Polling has changed over the years. The first opinion poll was taken in 1824; it asked voters how they voted as they left their polling places. Informal polls are called straw polls, and they informally collect opinions of a non-random population or group. Newspapers and social media continue the tradition of unofficial polls, mainly because interested readers want to know how elections will end. Facebook and online newspapers often offer informal, pop-up quizzes that ask a single question about politics or an event. The poll is not meant to be formal, but it provides a general idea of what the readership thinks.

Modern public opinion polling is relatively new, only eighty years old. These polls are far more sophisticated than straw polls and are carefully designed to probe what we think, want, and value. The information they gather may be relayed to politicians or newspapers, and is analyzed by statisticians and social scientists. As the media and politicians pay more attention to the polls, an increasing number are put in the field every week. Most public opinion polls aim to be accurate, but this is not an easy task. Political polling is a science.

From design to implementation, polls are complex and require careful planning and care. Mitt Romney’s campaign polls are only a recent example of problems stemming from polling methods. Our history is littered with examples of polling companies producing results that incorrectly predicted public opinion due to poor survey design or bad polling methods. In 1936, Literary Digest continued its tradition of polling citizens to determine who would win the presidential election. The magazine sent opinion cards to people who had a subscription, a phone, or a car registration. Only some of the recipients sent back their cards.

The result? Alf Landon was predicted to win 55.4 percent of the popular vote; in the end, he received only 38 percent.31 Franklin D. Roosevelt won another term, but the story demonstrates the need to be scientific in conducting polls. The main way Americans participate in our representative democracy and make their voices heard is by voting and sending elected representatives to do the work of government. But even when they’re not selecting candidates or voting on important issues in their community, Americans have views and opinions that matter and should be included in the public dialogue. Public opinion polling is an important way to make sure these views and opinions are brought into important national debates and conversations.

Here are a few reasons why measuring public opinion is important: The basic goal of a survey is to learn about a large group or population based on what we can learn from a small number of people who are part of that group. The large population could be the general public, registered voters, or even a narrower group like all teenagers ages 13 to 17. Once we know what population or group we want to study, we need to choose a random sample of people from that group who will represent the views of the entire group. We also need to decide how we are going to interview those people and what specific questions we are going to ask. Public opinion shapes politics, but how do we measure it?

Surveys, polls, and focus groups gather data through various methods, each with strengths and limitations. From telephone interviews to social media analytics, these tools provide insights into what people think. Interpreting poll results requires critical thinking. Sample size, margin of error, question wording, and timing all impact accuracy. Advanced techniques like demographic weighting and cross-tabulation help analyze data. Understanding these methods is key to grasping how public opinion influences American government.

\( \newcommand{\vecs}[1]{\overset { \scriptstyle \rightharpoonup} {\mathbf{#1}} } \) \( \newcommand{\vecd}[1]{\overset{-\!-\!\rightharpoonup}{\vphantom{a}\smash {#1}}} \) \( \newcommand{\dsum}{\displaystyle\sum\limits} \) \( \newcommand{\dint}{\displaystyle\int\limits} \) \( \newcommand{\dlim}{\displaystyle\lim\limits} \) Public opinion is more than a collection of answers to a question on a poll; it represents a snapshot of how people’s experiences and beliefs have led them to feel about a candidate, a...

Our attitudes are formed in childhood as part of our upbringing. They blend with our closely held beliefs about life and politics to form the basis for our opinions. Beginning early in life, we learn about politics from agents of socialization, which include family, schools, friends, religious organizations, and the media. Socialization gives us the information necessary to understand our political system and make decisions. We use this information to choose our ideology and decide what the proper role of government should be in our society. The purpose of a poll is to identify how a population feels about an issue or candidate.

Many polling companies and news outlets use statisticians and social scientists to design accurate and scientific polls and to reduce errors. A scientific poll will try to create a representative and random sample to ensure the responses are similar to what the actual population of an area believes. Scientific polls also have lower margins of error, which means they better predict what the overall public or population thinks. Most polls are administered through phones, online, or via social media. Even in scientific polls, issues like timing, social pressure, lack of knowledge, and human nature can create results that do not match true public opinion. Polls can also be used as campaign devices to try to change a voter’s mind on an issue or candidate.

How have changes in technology made polling more difficult? When citizens change their sources of information, their opinions may change. The influence of elites and workplaces, life experiences, and state political culture can all help change our opinions. Economic and social policies are likely to cause controversy if the government has to serve the needs of many different groups or balance rights and liberties, all with limited resources. What Americans think about their government institutions shifts over time as well. Overall approval for presidents begins high and drops over time, with expected increases and decreases occurring due to domestic and international events.

Approval for Congress changes more dramatically with domestic events and partisan behavior. The public has a lower opinion of Congress than of the president, and recent congressional approval levels have hovered between 10 and 20 percent. The Supreme Court has the most stable public approval ratings, possibly due to its less visible nature. But the court’s ratings can be affected by controversial decisions, such as its 2015 decisions on the Affordable Care Act and same-sex marriage. By the end of this section, you will be able to: Polling has changed over the years.

The first opinion poll was taken in 1824; it asked voters how they voted as they left their polling places. Informal polls are called straw polls, and they informally collect opinions of a non-random population or group. Newspapers and social media continue the tradition of unofficial polls, mainly because interested readers want to know how elections will end. Facebook and online newspapers often offer informal, pop-up quizzes that ask a single question about politics or an event. The poll is not meant to be formal, but it provides a general idea of what the readership thinks. Modern public opinion polling is relatively new, only eighty years old.

These polls are far more sophisticated than straw polls and are carefully designed to probe what we think, want, and value. The information they gather may be relayed to politicians or newspapers, and is analyzed by statisticians and social scientists. As the media and politicians pay more attention to the polls, an increasing number are put in the field every week. Most public opinion polls aim to be accurate, but this is not an easy task. Political polling is a science. From design to implementation, polls are complex and require careful planning and care.

Mitt Romney’s campaign polls are only a recent example of problems stemming from polling methods. Our history is littered with examples of polling companies producing results that incorrectly predicted public opinion due to poor survey design or bad polling methods. In 1936, Literary Digest continued its tradition of polling citizens to determine who would win the presidential election. The magazine sent opinion cards to people who had a subscription, a phone, or a car registration. Only some of the recipients sent back their cards. The result?

How Is Public Opinion Measured American Government

People Also Search

Chapter 6: The Politics Of Public Opinion By The End

Facebook And Online Newspapers Often Offer Informal, Pop-up Quizzes That

Most Public Opinion Polls Aim To Be Accurate, But This

Polling Has Changed Over The Years. The First Opinion Poll

Modern Public Opinion Polling Is Relatively New, Only Eighty Years