Public Opinion Polling Basics Pew Research Center

Leo Migdal

-Oct 22, 2025, 7:07 AM

public opinion polling basics pew research center

Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World Hello! I’m Scott Keeter, senior survey advisor at Pew Research Center. I’ve been conducting surveys of all kinds for about 40 years. Currently I work with our survey methodology team, which provides methodological guidance and support to all the Center’s research teams. Most of the work we do at the Center involves opinion polling.

So let’s take a step back and ask a few basic questions about this frequently misunderstood field: I’ll try to answer these and other questions in this course, which is made up of six short, easy-to-read lessons.But first, please answer 3 questions on polling to gauge your level of understanding. You’ll get another whack at these questions at the end of the course, along with some new ones. For centuries, scholars have debated the question: “What is public opinion?” Or, put differently, “What is the will of the people?” And for nearly as long, they have debated how best to measure it. The great political scientist V.O. Key Jr.

defined public opinion as “those opinions held by private persons which governments find it prudent to heed.” And while there have been many ways of assessing and measuring these “opinions held by private persons”... 🎉We have updated our Public Opinion Polling Basics short course. 🎉 The course answers questions like: 1️⃣ Why do we have public opinion polls? 2️⃣ How does polling work? 3️⃣ What are the different kinds of polls? 4️⃣ What’s the deal with election polls?

💫NEW 💫 5️⃣ Is accurate polling becoming harder to do? 6️⃣ What should you look for in a poll? Deepen your understanding of polling in six short, easy-to-read lessons ➡️ How is the sample selected for a telephone survey? Typically, survey organizations conducting telephone surveys purchase a Random Digit Dial (RDD) sample of randomly-generated phone numbers from a firm that specializes in designing samples that have been purged to eliminate business numbers, dead... Much could be said on this topic, but to keep it simple, a 10-digit phone number in the United States consists of 4 parts.

All 4 components are assigned by the telephone company. The first 3 components are based on location and the final component is randomly generated. The interviewer will then randomly select a person in the household to be interviewed. One common method is to ask for the adult in the household who had the most recent birthday. This is done because it is an easy way to obtain a random respondent from the household, rather than the first person to answer the phone.In addition, certain parts of the population, such as... Because of this, interviewers often ask to speak with the youngest male in a household first.

Because nearly a quarter of the US population (as of 2014) has a cell phone but no landline telephone, true scientific samples should include a subsample of cell phone users. Cell phone sampling comes with its own unique challenges, such as higher cost and lower response rates. FCC regulations require that cell phone lines be dialed by hand, rather than computer, increasing time and manpower requirements. Geographic information is also different for cell phones, with the area code offering the only geographic information for the cell phone user, and the exchange and block numbers offering information on the service provider. In addition, the portability of cell phones means that users can keep their numbers if they move. Despite these added complications, however, cell phone sampling methods are similar to those used for landline telephones.

Polls are more useful to the public if people have realistic expectations about what surveys can do well – and what they cannot. NPORS is an annual survey of U.S. adults conducted by the Pew Research Center used to to produce benchmark estimates for several topics. A new study found that 61% of national pollsters used different methods in 2022 than in 2016. And last year, 17% of pollsters used multiple methods to sample or interview people – up from 2% in 2016. By the end of our free, six-lesson course, you will know why we have polls, what the different kinds of polls are, how polling works and what you should look for in a poll.

Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016. Hello! I’m Scott Keeter, senior survey advisor at Pew Research Center. I’ve been conducting surveys of all kinds for about 40 years. Currently I work with our survey methodology team, which provides methodological guidance and support to all the Center’s research teams.

Most of the work we do at the Center involves opinion polling. So let’s take a step back and ask a few basic questions about this frequently misunderstood field: For centuries, scholars have debated the question: “What is public opinion?” Or, put differently, “What is the will of the people?” And for nearly as long, they have debated how best to measure it. The great political scientist V.O. Key Jr. defined public opinion as “those opinions held by private persons which governments find it prudent to heed.” And while there have been many ways of assessing and measuring these “opinions held by private persons”...

The typical opinion poll consists of a set of “interviews” with people selected to be representative of a population of interest, such as all U.S. adults. These aren’t like the anxiety-inducing interviews you might have for a job. In survey interviews, a pollster will ask everyone the same set of questions in the same way, then tally up the answers and report the results. Public opinion polls are a key way to measure what people think about politics, society, and current issues. This guide highlights trusted databases, survey archives, and polling organizations in the United States and around the world.

It also includes tips for evaluating polls so you can use them with confidence in research papers, class projects, or presentations. Not sure where to start? Here’s how to choose the right resource: Need quick facts or charts for a class project? Try Statista, Gallup, or the Pew Research Center for summaries, graphics, and ready-to-use statistics. Looking for in-depth reports on U.S.

attitudes? Use General Social Survey (GSS), American National Election Studies (ANES), or Public Agenda for long-term trends and analysis. Want to analyze raw data for your own research? Go to ICPSR, Roper Center, or ANES for downloadable datasets you can work with directly. Call the Wilson Library front desk to get help by phone during open hours, or leave a voicemail for next-day follow-up. Use the web form to email us.

We respond within 1 to 2 business days. Real people, no bots. All day and night, with help from librarians everywhere. Public Opinion Polling Basics (text): A short course by Pew Research Center and Scott Keeter explaining how public opinion polling works. Public Opinion Research: What it is + Why it’s Important (text): QuestionPro explains what public opinion research is in simple terms. Erin Fordyce, MS, MEd is a Senior Research Methodologist with NORC.

She has over 10 years of social science research experience. Erin has been working with NORC since May 2013 and is currently finishing PhD coursework at Loyola Chicago in the Research Methodology program. Her work primarily focuses on survey design and testing and multi-mode data collection approaches. When you were a student what was your original plan? For my undergraduate degree, I studied criminal justice and legal studies. My plan was to work for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on human trafficking cases.

After interning with a local police department my senior year, I realized that field might not be the best fit for me. While I was passionate about the work, I knew it would be stressful and require an extreme level of mental toughness. Rodney L. Terry, Ph.D. is a social science analyst at the Center for Behavioral Science Methods at the U.S. Census Bureau.

With nearly 15 years of experience applying qualitative and mixed methods in survey research, he began his career at the Census Bureau conducting research to help improve the measurement of race and ethnicity. Most recently, he leads projects that address equity and inclusion in the workplace, including qualitative research to identify barriers to workplace inclusion for first-generation professionals, and survey research addressing general employee retention issues.

Public Opinion Polling Basics Pew Research Center

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All 4 Components Are Assigned By The Telephone Company. The