The Belém Paradox Cop30 Failed To Protect Forests

Leo Migdal

-Dec 3, 2025, 1:17 PM

the belém paradox cop30 failed to protect forests

We have just wrapped up COP30, the Amazon COP, in Belém, Brazil. The setting couldn’t have been more symbolic: the humid heat of the rainforest, the broad expanse of the Guamá River, and the palpable urgency of a biome at its tipping point. The expectation was clear: this would be the moment the world finally operationalized the link between forest conservation and climate stability. Yet, as the delegates fly home, we are left with a stark contradiction: the Belém Paradox. While the summit launched new financial instruments and strengthened the recognition of Indigenous rights, the final binding text, the Global Mutirão, is conspicuously silent on the one commitment that matters most right now: a... Here is my assessment of what happened, what the data shows and where we go from here.

The COP30 venue in Belém, Brazil, where negotiations ended without a binding global commitment to halt deforestation. Photo by Climate Acceptance Studios Belém, Brazil – What started with strong hope and promise ended without actionable roadmaps to end forest destruction and the burning of fossil fuels, as geopolitical divisions again showcased the disconnection with people calling... The first COP in the Amazon rainforest should have delivered an action plan to end forest destruction by 2030 and after 2035 climate action plans fell dangerously short, COP30 should also have delivered a... It did neither. Nor did it deliver a meaningful step-up in climate finance.

The final day of the COP was marked by an objection raised by Colombia and other Latin American countries over a lack of progress in climate mitigation, leading to a temporary suspension of the... Carolina Pasquali, Executive Director, Greenpeace Brazil said: “President Lula set the bar high in calling for roadmaps to end fossil fuels and deforestation, but a divided multilateral landscape was unable to hurdle it. This was a crossroad – a properly funded path to 1.5°C or a highway to climate catastrophe – and while many governments are willing to act, a powerful minority is not.” “This weak outcome doesn’t do justice to everything else that happened in Belém. The biggest Indigenous participation in a climate COP, but also the marches and protests organised outside led to the demarcation of 14 lands – four of those in the very final stage of the... The two roadmaps and a strong finance outcome would have provided a historic result to raise ambition, but the work now continues.”

Jasper Inventor, Deputy Programme Director, Greenpeace International said: “COP30 started with a bang of ambition but ended with a whimper of disappointment. This was the moment to move from negotiations to implementation – and it slipped. The outcome failed to match the urgency demanded. The 1.5°C limit is not just under threat, it’s almost gone. It’s this reality that exposes the hypocrisy of inaction of COP after COP after COP.” Forest defenders disappointed by the lack of agreement on a roadmap to tackle deforestation at COP30 say voluntary initiatives and funding promises set in motion in Belém are at least a step in the...

Indigenous people and campaigners hoped the first UN climate summit held in the Amazon would define a concrete plan for saving the world’s forests. But COP30’s “Global Mutirão” decision makes only passing mention of the COP28 target adopted by all countries to halt and reverse forest loss by 2030 – a goal data shows is way off-track. A decision on cutting carbon emissions – part of the broader package of COP30 outcomes – also made short shrift of the issue, referring only to the “challenges in addressing drivers of deforestation” while... “Our expectations were far higher than what this COP in the heart of the Amazon ultimately delivered,” Fernanda Carvalho, head of policy for climate and energy at WWF, told Climate Home News. Panama’s head of delegation at the talks, Juan Carlos Monterrey, said in a social media post that “a Forest COP with no commitment on forests is a very bad joke”. The 2025 UN climate talks wrapped on Saturday, Nov.

22 after negotiations pushed into overtime. The resulting decision secured some important wins, both inside and outside the negotiations. But it omitted some of the big-ticket items many hoped to see. With efforts to halt temperature rise severely off track and climate disasters becoming ever-more destructive, the summit (COP30) aimed to establish clear pathways to deliver past pledges and put the world on a safer... A key question was how countries would address lagging ambition in their new climate commitments (NDCs). Hopes that countries would commit to roadmaps to end fossil fuel use and halt deforestation were ultimately dashed after opposition from petrostates.

The final decision only included new voluntary initiatives to accelerate national climate action, though the Brazilian Presidency intends to move forward with fossil fuel and deforestation roadmaps outside of the formal COP talks. Building resilience to climate impacts took center stage, with COP30 securing a new target to triple finance for climate adaptation. The COP also laid out practical solutions to increase finance for the low-carbon transition. In an era of trade wars and tariffs, negotiators also agreed for the first time to hold discussions on how trade policies can help — or hinder — climate action. Against the backdrop of the Amazon, nature also saw advances, including a new fund for tropical forest conservation. Indigenous Peoples and other local communities were recognized like never before.

And outside the formal negotiations, the summit saw a raft of new pledges and action plans from cities, states, countries and the private sector. It is clear that we are moving from negotiations to implementation, and from wrangling over what to do to how to do it. These victories matter. It shows that international cooperation can still deliver, despite deepening divides on climate action and a difficult geopolitical context. In the sweltering conference halls of Belém, COP30, dubbed the ‘rainforest COP’, proved to be a mixed bag. While it failed to deliver concrete plans to end deforestation or phase out fossil fuels, there was some better news for Indigenous Peoples, local communities and the Congo Basin.

Here are some brief takeaways from a breathless fortnight in the Amazon: The need for UNFCCC reform: COP30 underlined the urgent need to reform the UNFCCC process. Countries updated climate plans (NDCs) fell woefully short of the ambition needed to keep 1.5°C alive while progress on phasing out fossil fuels was once again blocked by a handful of petrostates, despite overwhelming... Similarly, a much-needed roadmap to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030, oddly linked to the oil phase-out proposal, failed to make it into the final text, although efforts to develop both outside the UN... Article 6 edges closer: After much of the ‘rulebook’ for Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, providing a framework for countries to cooperate on implementing their NDCs, was controversially pushed through at COP29, most... However, there was notable pushback on including nature-based offsets in the system, driven by persistent concerns over their integrity and alignment with the 1.5°C goal.

Progress on TFFF but still falling short: The Tropical Forest Finance Facility (TFFF), a flagship initiative by the Brazilian hosts to provide long-term financial incentives for conserving tropical forests, had a prominent profile at... While it incorporated several of our recommendations such as on Indigenous Peoples and investment exclusions, it has so far raised only 30 percent of its USD 25 billion target from sponsors amid some concerns... Bright spots - IPLC pledges and Congo Basin funding: There were notable wins for Indigenous Peoples and local communities including the Forest Tenure Funders Group pledge of USD 1.8 billion to advance IPLC tenure... Meanwhile, there was an agreement to triple funding for climate adaptation in the Global South, albeit with a delay of five years, and donors announced USD 2.5 billion for the Congo Basin, signalling growing... As ever with such pledges the real work now begins, ensuring they translate into meaningful change on the ground through secure tenure rights and community-based forest protection and climate adaptation. COP30 opened in Belém with high expectations.

Brazil positioned COP30 as a moment to center forests, equity, and real-world implementation after years of slow progress. Delegates and observers arrived hoping for breakthroughs on fossil fuels, deforestation, emissions reductions, and climate finance, four areas that define the credibility of global climate action. As negotiations unfolded, however, the mood shifted. Progress was made, but not on the issues many considered most urgent. What emerged was a mixed outcome: enough substance to show that multilateral climate diplomacy remains alive, yet it fell well short of delivering the robust, science-aligned commitments needed to shift the world decisively onto... Need the Gist?

Swipe through the visuals below for a quick summary! The clearest disappointment came in the area where expectations were highest. Despite widespread public pressure and support from more than 80 countries, the final text made no reference to phasing out or even phasing down fossil fuels. Instead, negotiators agreed on generic language urging emissions reductions and low-carbon development. This omission became the defining symbol of the summit’s limitations, highlighting how lobbyists can constrain the most fundamental step needed to meet global climate goals. In response to this failure, COP30 President announced it would lead the development of 2 voluntary roadmaps outside the formal UN process: one on the transition away from fossil fuels and one on halting...

Lecturer in International Development, UCL UCL Professor of Earth System Science and UNU Lead for Climate, Health and Security, UCL Professor of Infrastructure Engineering and International Development, UCL Mark Maslin is Pro-Vice Provost of the UCL Climate Crisis Grand Challenge and Founding Director of the UCL Institute for Sustainable Aviation and Aeronautics. He was co-director of the London NERC Doctoral Training Partnership and is a member of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group. He is an advisor to Sheep Included Ltd, Lansons, NetZeroNow and has advised the UK Parliament.

He has received grant funding from the NERC, EPSRC, ESRC, DFG, Royal Society, DIFD, BEIS, DECC, FCO, Innovate UK, Carbon Trust, UK Space Agency, European Space Agency, Research England, Wellcome Trust, Leverhulme Trust, CIFF,... He has received funding from the BBC, Lancet, Laithwaites, Seventh Generation, Channel 4, JLT Re, WWF, Hermes, CAFOD, HP, Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, John Templeton Foundation, The Nand & Jeet Khemka Foundation, Quadrature... Professor Priti Parikh is the Director of UCL's Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction and Vice Dean International for Bartlett Faculty of Built Environment. She is a Fellow and Trustee for Institution of Civil Engineers. Research funding sources include UKRI, Royal Academy of Engineering, Water Aid, British Academy, Bboxx Ltd, UCL, Royal Society and British Council. Her consultancy has received funding from AECOM, Cambridge Institute for Sustainable Leadership, Water and Sanitation for the Urban Poor, UNHABITAT, Arup, ITAD and GTZ

The Belém Paradox Cop30 Failed To Protect Forests

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