Analysis Half Of Global Emissions Covered By 2035 Climate Pledges

Leo Migdal

-Dec 3, 2025, 10:48 AM

analysis half of global emissions covered by 2035 climate pledges

Half of global greenhouse gas emissions are now covered by a 2035 climate pledge following a key UN summit this week, Carbon Brief analysis finds. China stole the show at the UN climate summit held in New York on 24 September, announcing a pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035. However, other major emitters also came forward with new climate-pledge announcements at the event, including the world’s fourth biggest emitter, Russia, and Turkey. Following the summit, around one-third (63) of countries have now announced or submitted their 2035 climate pledges, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs). The NDCs are a formal five-yearly requirement under the “ratchet mechanism” of the Paris Agreement, the landmark deal to keep temperatures well-below 2C, with aspirations to keep to 1.5C, by the end of this... Sign up to our weekly and monthly, easy-to-digest recap of climate news from around the world.

Without the Paris Agreement, which mandates its signatories to submit climate plans every five years, we would be looking at an increase of emissions between 20-48% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. An updated report on countries’ climate pledges revealed that the yearly amount of planet-warming gases added to the atmosphere could decrease 12% by 2035 from 2019 levels. The revised figure is slightly higher than the one presented in an analysis last month, as it takes into account climate pledges submitted since the cutoff for the previous analysis. The new report, unveiled Monday by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), takes into account 86 climate plans submitted by 113 Parties between January 1, 2024 and November 9, 2025. Together, these plans – also known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – put us on track to cut emissions by 12% in the next 10 years. ⁠

The global climate policy landscape is shifting as countries accelerate the submission of their 2035 climate pledges, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), under the Paris Agreement. This critical policy action requires nations to outline their post-2020 climate efforts, with each successive pledge intended to increase ambition. A recent UN summit in New York prompted new announcements from major emitters, including China, Russia, and Turkey, bringing the total coverage of global greenhouse gas emissions under a 2035 pledge to 50%. This collective movement is essential for guiding industries toward decarbonization pathways and for the world to align with the 1.5°C global warming limit. Before this news, a key question for the informed public centered on whether nations would genuinely increase their climate ambition, especially after most missed the initial February 2025 deadline for 2035 NDC submissions. The first Global Stocktake at COP28 in 2023 underscored that current collective efforts are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals, leaving many wondering if the necessary political will would materialize for more...

The renewed push for 2035 NDCs stems from the Paris Agreement’s inherent “ratchet mechanism,” designed to progressively increase climate action over time. Political pressure from the UN climate chief, who requested submissions by the end of September 2025 for a synthesis report, also played a significant role in galvanizing recent pledges. Industries are expected to react by intensifying their decarbonization strategies, investing in cleaner technologies, and adapting business models to meet new national targets. Consider a country’s NDC as a national blueprint for climate action, directing economic sectors toward specific emissions reduction pathways and fostering innovation in green technologies. This dynamic encourages a shift in investment and operational practices across energy, manufacturing, and transportation sectors. The immediate future will reveal if the remaining two-thirds of nations, including major emitters like India, Indonesia, and Mexico, submit their 2035 NDCs, with many expected to do so by COP30 in November.

A key indicator of success will be the overall ambition reflected in these new pledges, particularly whether they collectively align with the 1.5°C warming limit. The next UN synthesis report on NDCs will provide a crucial assessment of global progress and highlight areas requiring further action, influencing subsequent international climate negotiations and national policy adjustments. Understand 2035 climate targets, where the world stands, and what it takes to close the gap. Clear facts, simple terms, and a handy scorecard. A 2035 target is a goal to cut a country’s greenhouse gas emissions by a certain percent by the year 2035. Most targets sit inside a country’s NDC under the UNFCCC.

The “baseline year” is the year used for comparison, like 2005 or 2019. A 60% cut from 2005 means the country aims to emit 60% less in 2035 than it did in 2005. You may see two kinds of targets: unconditional (a country will do it on its own) and conditional (it will do more if it gets finance or help). Many NDCs include both. Updated country pledges point to about a 12% drop in global emissions by 2035 compared to 2019. That is better than before, when the expected drop was closer to 10% (UNFCCC summary via Earth.Org; UNEP via Carbon Brief).

The 2025 UN climate talks wrapped on Saturday, Nov. 22 after negotiations pushed into overtime. The resulting decision secured some important wins, both inside and outside the negotiations. But it omitted some of the big-ticket items many hoped to see. With efforts to halt temperature rise severely off track and climate disasters becoming ever-more destructive, the summit (COP30) aimed to establish clear pathways to deliver past pledges and put the world on a safer... A key question was how countries would address lagging ambition in their new climate commitments (NDCs).

Hopes that countries would commit to roadmaps to end fossil fuel use and halt deforestation were ultimately dashed after opposition from petrostates. The final decision only included new voluntary initiatives to accelerate national climate action, though the Brazilian Presidency intends to move forward with fossil fuel and deforestation roadmaps outside of the formal COP talks. Building resilience to climate impacts took center stage, with COP30 securing a new target to triple finance for climate adaptation. The COP also laid out practical solutions to increase finance for the low-carbon transition. In an era of trade wars and tariffs, negotiators also agreed for the first time to hold discussions on how trade policies can help — or hinder — climate action. Against the backdrop of the Amazon, nature also saw advances, including a new fund for tropical forest conservation.

Indigenous Peoples and other local communities were recognized like never before. And outside the formal negotiations, the summit saw a raft of new pledges and action plans from cities, states, countries and the private sector. It is clear that we are moving from negotiations to implementation, and from wrangling over what to do to how to do it. These victories matter. It shows that international cooperation can still deliver, despite deepening divides on climate action and a difficult geopolitical context.

Analysis Half Of Global Emissions Covered By 2035 Climate Pledges

People Also Search

Half Of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Now Covered By

Without The Paris Agreement, Which Mandates Its Signatories To Submit

The Global Climate Policy Landscape Is Shifting As Countries Accelerate

The Renewed Push For 2035 NDCs Stems From The Paris

A Key Indicator Of Success Will Be The Overall Ambition