Election 2024 Research And Data From Pew Research Center

Leo Migdal

-Oct 29, 2025, 4:25 AM

election 2024 research and data from pew research center

Our in-depth analysis of validated voters – those confirmed to have voted in the 2024 election – explores turnout, demographics and how people’s voting patterns changed over time. In this interactive feature, explore how changes between the 2020 and 2024 elections in how – and whether – people voted helped to return President Trump to office. Americans feel more “warmly” toward Trump today than after the 2020 or 2016 elections, and he draws broad confidence on the economy. The economy was the most important issue for Trump voters this year; 93% of his supporters said it was very important to their vote. 90% of Harris voters, versus 57% of Trump voters, are confident the 2024 election will be administered well. For the most part, voting patterns across demographic groups in the 2024 presidential election were not substantially different from the 2020 and 2016 elections.

But Donald Trump’s gains among several key groups of voters proved decisive in his 2024 victory.To explore voting patterns among subgroups over time, refer to detailed tables. Hispanic voters were divided in 2024, a major shift from 2020 and 2016. In 2020, Joe Biden won Hispanic voters by 25 percentage points, and Hispanic voters supported Hillary Clinton by an even wider margin in 2016. But Trump drew nearly even with Kamala Harris among Hispanic voters, losing among them by only 3 points. Black voters also moved to Trump but remained overwhelmingly Democratic.Trump nearly doubled his support among Black voters between 2020 and 2024: 8% voted for him in 2020 vs. 15% last year.

Still, 83% of Black voters backed Harris. Men – especially men under 50 – backed Trump by larger margins. Men supported Trump by a wider margin than in 2020. Trump narrowly won men under age 50, a shift from 2020 when men in that age group favored Biden by 10 points. As in prior elections, a change in voters’ partisan allegiances – switching from the Democratic to the Republican candidate or vice versa – proved to be a less important factor in Trump’s victory than... In the overall electorate and among key demographic groups, Republican-leaning eligible voters simply were more likely to turn out than Democratic-leaning eligible voters in 2024.

Pew Research Center has gathered data around some of this year’s most pivotal news stories, from the U.S. presidential election and international conflicts to debates over immigration and the role of social media in society. Here’s a look back at 2024 through 14 of our most striking research findings. These are just a small slice of the Center’s many research publications from this year. (In these findings, Republicans and Democrats also include independents who lean toward each party.) The U.S.

centenarian population is projected to more than quadruple over the next 30 years. An estimated 101,000 Americans were 100 or older in 2024 – including former President Jimmy Carter, who reached the milestone in October. By 2054, the number of centenarians in the United States is projected to rise to around 422,000, according to a January analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. Today, 78% of Americans in their 100s are women and 22% are men. There are also racial and ethnic differences within this group: 77% of centenarians are White, while far fewer are Black (8%), Asian (7%) or Hispanic (6%).

White adults are expected to still make up the majority of U.S. centenarians by 2054, though their share is projected to fall slightly to 72%. Asian centenarians are also expected to make up a smaller share by 2054 (5%), while the shares of Hispanic (11%) and Black (10%) centenarians will grow. Pew Research Center conducted this study to better understand which voters cast ballots in the 2024 presidential election and how they voted. We also wanted to compare how turnout and vote choices differed from previous elections in 2020 and 2016. Measuring turnout among different groups in the electorate is challenging; it is particularly difficult to assess changes in turnout from election to election.Panel-based survey data provides us a unique opportunity to study elections.

By surveying the same people over time and measuring their choice among the candidates (for both voters and nonvoters), we can more clearly see how differences in who stays home – and who turns... We can also measure how adults’ partisan voting preferences change (or do not change) between elections.For this study, we surveyed U.S. adults on our nationally representative American Trends Panel (ATP). We verified their turnout using commercial voter files that aggregate publicly available official state turnout records. The first analysis of validated voters was completed after the 2016 election. Turnout was validated for subsequent elections in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024.

Each state and the District of Columbia compiles these publicly available turnout records as part of their routine election administration. To validate 2024 election turnout, we attempted to match adult citizens who are part of the ATP to a turnout record in at least one of three commercial voter files: one that serves conservative... A member of the ATP is considered a validated voter for a given election if they: Those who said they did not vote in an election are considered nonvoters. Nonvoters also include anyone – regardless of their self-reported vote – for whom we could not locate a voting record in any of the three commercial voter files. Those who could not be matched were also considered nonvoters.

Overall, 94% of panelists who we attempted to match were successfully matched to at least one of the three voter files. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other factors. For benchmarks of partisan affiliation within racial and ethnic categories, we used estimates produced by the Center’s 2023-24 Religious Landscape Study of more than 36,000 adults. In addition, this survey is weighted to benchmarks for voter turnout and presidential vote preference. Most voters say that the 2024 election will be run and administered well, both in their community and across the U.S.

And while confidence in election administration across the country is up since 2020, it remains lower than it was before the 2018 midterms. Harris voters are more positive than Trump voters in their predictions about national election administration: These differences are even more pronounced among the strongest supporters of the two candidates. About nine-in-ten of those who strongly back Harris (92%) expect elections across the country to be administered well, including nearly half (46%) who say they will be administered very well. By comparison, 52% of those who strongly back Trump expect U.S. elections to be administered well; just 8% say they will be administered very well.

Nearly half (46%) say they think elections across the country will not be run well. Most supporters of both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris say they’ve thought a lot about the candidates this year and say the outcome of the race really matters. As in other recent elections, the two coalitions are roughly equally engaged and interested. And satisfaction with the field is much higher than it was a few months ago – as Harris’ backers are now much more likely to say they are satisfied than President Joe Biden’s supporters... Nearly two-thirds of voters (64%) say they have given a lot of thought to the candidates who are running in the 2024 presidential election. As was the case in 2020, supporters of the two candidates are about equally likely to say they have given a lot of thought to the candidates running for president.

Today, 63% of Harris supporters and 66% of Trump supporters say this. About three-quarters of voters (76%) say it really matters who wins the election. This is on par with voters’ views about the 2020 election in both August (76%) and October (78%) of that year. Pro-Trump supporters gather at the National Mall before the inauguration of the President Trump on January 20 in Washington, DC. Jim Vondruska/Getty Images hide caption Even if everyone who is eligible to vote in the country would have voted, President Trump still would have won the 2024 presidential election, a new study out Thursday from the Pew Research Center...

Trump won in 2024 with just under 50% of the vote, 49.7%-48.2% over Democrat Kamala Harris. Roughly 64% of the eligible-voting population turned out in 2024, the second highest since 1904. 2020 was the highest. But even if everyone who could vote did, Trump would have won by an even wider margin, 48%-45%, according to Pew's validated voters survey.

Election 2024 Research And Data From Pew Research Center

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