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How The Economy Flipped From A Red To Blue Issue According To Exit

Leo Migdal
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how the economy flipped from a red to blue issue according to exit

The bread-and-butter advantage among Democrats marked a sharp turnabout. A Navy veteran, an ex-member of Congress and a self-avowed democratic socialist won resounding victories in high-profile races on Tuesday – all carrying the banner of the Democratic party and each addressing widespread concern... Despite varied biographies, top-of-the-ballot Democrats across New Jersey, Virginia and New York City each prevailed in contests before electorates who ranked the economy or cost of living as a top issue, according to exit... The bread-and-butter advantage among Democratic nominees marked a sharp turnabout from the presidential election a year ago, when widespread discontent over inflation helped fuel the success of President Donald Trump and the Republican control... Roughly half of Virginia voters on Tuesday said that the economy was the most important issue facing the commonwealth, and they supported Democrat Abigail Spanberger by more than 24 percentage points, according to ABC... Learn how key elections flipped the economy from a red to blue issue, reshaping political landscapes in major U.S.

states. In a political landscape that once heavily leaned towards Republican economic policies, a recent wave of elections has witnessed a striking shift. Key Democratic victories in high-profile races across New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City have marked a notable turnabout, as these wins highlight a crucial pivot in voter priorities and economic perceptions. On a night characterized by prevailing Democratic victories, candidates like Navy veteran Abigail Spanberger, ex-Congress member Mikie Sherrill, and self-avowed democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani emerged triumphant, each voicing strong platforms on affordability and economic... According to exit polls conducted by ABC News, these Democratic figures resonated strongly with voters, reflecting widespread concerns about the economy and cost of living. A year ago, inflation concerns and economic dissatisfaction steered the electorate towards the Republican party, contributing to President Donald Trump’s triumph and subsequent control of Congress.

The tables have now turned. Economic issues, once the stronghold of Republicans, have become instrumental in the Democratic success narrative. Data from the elections reveals a significant narrative change: roughly half of Virginia voters cited the economy as their primary concern, supporting Spanberger decisively. Similarly, in New York City, exit polls indicated that over half of the voters prioritized cost of living, with a significant majority backing Mamdani’s agenda, which includes taxing wealthier individuals to fund essential services. Democratic wins in Tuesday’s elections gave the party a sorely needed burst of momentum ahead of next year’s midterm elections. The party came in favored in races for Virginia and New Jersey governor, New York City mayor and a California ballot measure to green-light a Democratic gerrymander of the state’s congressional map.

But the huge margins in those governor’s races and other contests left many Democrats feeling a new emotion — excitement — for the first time in some time. The results affirmed the candidates’ decisions to run economic-centered campaigns, highlighted Republicans’ trouble replicating President Donald Trump’s coalition, and included other signs of repudiation and warning for Trump. Even as they caution there are limits to how much these Democratic victories in several blue-leaning areas can translate into 2026 midterm elections on far more competitive turf, some Republicans are sounding the alarm. “It was a bloodbath. It’s a disastrous night for Republicans in the state, and I think nationally folks should probably heed some warnings as well,” said Mike DuHaime, a longtime New Jersey GOP strategist and former Republican National... “It shows there’s some discontent certainly with the current administration and it shows that candidates and campaigns matter as well.”

In the 2024 election, voters made their decision based on what political strategists long considered to be the central issue of every presidential campaign: the economy. Exit polls on Tuesday showed a stark partisan divide. Some two-thirds (67%) of voters said the condition of the economy was “not good/poor,” and only 32% thought the economy was “excellent/good.” Among those who viewed the economy negatively, 69% were Republicans and 29%... Only 8% of those with a positive outlook on the economy were Republican while a whopping 91% of people who felt the economy was doing well were Democrats. Those numbers presaged an insurmountable hurdle for the incumbent Democratic Party. And it appears Vice President Kamala Harris couldn’t outrun the negative sentiment.

The actual state of economic play is more complex. Inflation has come down to 2.4% from a high of 9% in June 2022. But that means prices are growing more slowly, not that they’re low. “[President-elect Donald] Trump is expected to be largely inheriting a pretty decent economy, with one exception, while inflation rates have fallen back down to earth, price levels are still pretty high,” Glenmede vice president... “And that’s ultimately what matters for households.” A version of this story appeared in CNN Business’ Nightcap newsletter.

To get it in your inbox, sign up for free here. It’s the circle of political life: Now, as in 1992 when Bill Clinton was trying to unseat George H.W. Bush, what ails the electorate can be boiled down to a soundbite: It is, in fact, the economy, stupid. Democrats trounced Republicans on Tuesday in three key races with little in common apart from one issue — affordability. It’s the same problem that propelled President Donald Trump to a second term. And the same problem that Trump, who promised lower prices on “Day One,” has let fester as he carries out an economic agenda of tariffs, tax cuts and deportations that are, unavoidably, inflationary.

Elections in Virginia, New Jersey and New York City reflected an electorate that is financially exhausted after five years of inflation that peaked in 2022. Although prices have stopped rising rapidly, they have not come down, contrary to Trump’s repeated lie that prices “are down” and that there is “no inflation.” Ideologically and culturally, Tuesday’s mayoral and gubernatorial races couldn’t be more different, but across those closely watched races, voters called economic issues – taxes, cost of living or the economy as a whole –... Only voters in Virginia saw their state’s economy as excellent or good, while those in California, New York City and New Jersey took a more pessimistic view. The bread-and-butter advantage among Democrats marked a sharp turnabout. ......

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