The Economic Cost Of The Pandemic State By State

Leo Migdal

-Dec 3, 2025, 11:16 AM

the economic cost of the pandemic state by state

Located on the campus of Stanford University and in Washington, DC, the Hoover Institution is the nation’s preeminent research center dedicated to generating policy ideas that promote economic prosperity, national security, and democratic governance. Hoover scholars form the Institution’s core and create breakthrough ideas aligned with our mission and ideals. What sets Hoover apart from all other policy organizations is its status as a center of scholarly excellence, its locus as a forum of scholarly discussion of public policy, and its ability to bring... Hoover Education Success Initiative | The Papers Throughout our over one-hundred-year history, our work has directly led to policies that have produced greater freedom, democracy, and opportunity in the United States and the world. Hoover scholars offer analysis of current policy challenges and provide solutions on how America can advance freedom, peace, and prosperity.

What if you could identify which states bounced back strongest from the pandemic—and position your business in economies that proved most resilient? This tracker reveals economic recovery patterns from 2020-2023, showing which states exceeded pre-pandemic income levels and which struggled to recover. The data shows dramatic differences: recovery champions exceeded 2020 income levels by 15%+ by 2023, while slower-recovering states barely reached pre-pandemic levels. Understanding recovery patterns helps you identify resilient markets that weathered economic shocks and positioned for growth. See which states bounced back strongest from the pandemic and what it means for your business. This tracker reveals economic resilience

This tracker analyzes how states recovered from pandemic economic impacts by comparing 2020 income to 2023 levels. You’ll discover which states bounced back fastest, which exceeded pre-pandemic levels, and what recovery patterns reveal about economic resilience. Why This Matters: States that recovered quickly from the pandemic show economic resilience and stability. Recovery champions offer markets that weathered economic shocks and positioned for growth, providing better opportunities for business success. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.

Our study presents a framework to estimate economic costs of the COVID-19 pandemic for the U.S. economy. We characterize whether the pandemic-related damages are short-lived or long-lasting. The potential damages are estimated in terms of losses in eight major variables, including employment, consumption, and GDP. To estimate damages from the pandemic, we utilize the pre-COVID potential level of the target variables, GDP for example, as a benchmark and compare these estimates with those that are calculated during the COVID... Our study suggests damages from the pandemic are not short-lived as the major sectors have shifted to a lower growth trajectory compared to the pre-COVID growth path.

Focusing only on the real GDP level would paint an illusion of a stronger recovery back to the “normal.” Furthermore, the illusion of a stronger recovery may lead to a sooner-than-appropriate policy normalization. Keywords: COVID-19, Economic cost, Output, Employment, Policy-errors The 2020 recession was the shortest on record as it only lasted for 2 months. The stage is set for the current recovery to be at the fastest pace in decades. The Q2-2021 real GDP level has already crossed the pre-recession peak. Financial market participants in the summer of 2021 were predicting a “tapering” announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sometime later in the year.

One gets a sense that some macroeconomics observers are suggesting that the COVID recession may have only produced short-term effects on the economy. However, as of August 2021 the reported level of payroll employment was still over 5.3 million jobs below its pre-pandemic peak. The still lingering labor market recovery raises a question of the long-lasting effects of the 2020 recession. Repairing long-lasting economic damages from the COVID pandemic may require a prolonged duration of accommodative policies. Our study presents a framework to estimate the costs of the COVID recession. We characterize whether the damages are short-lived or long-lasting.

The potential damages are estimated in terms of losses in eight major variables, including personal income, consumption, employment, labor productivity, investment and GDP. Our framework can be utilized to estimate losses from any recession and for any country/region. Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA)

Special Inspector General for Pandemic Recovery (SIGPR) The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work. The economic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. will reach $14 trillion by the end of 2023, our team of economists, public policy researchers and other experts have estimated. Putting a price tag on all the pain, suffering and upheaval Americans and people around the world have experienced because of COVID-19 is, of course, hard to do. More than 1.1 million people have died as a result of COVID-19 in the U.S., and many more have been hospitalized or lost loved ones.

Based on data from the first 30 months of the pandemic, we forecast the scale of total economic losses over a four-year period, from January 2020 to December 2023. To come up with our estimates, our team used economic modeling to approximate the revenue lost due to mandatory business closures at the beginning of the pandemic. We also used modeling to assess the economic blows from the many changes in personal behavior that continued long after the lockdown orders were lifted – such as avoiding restaurants, theaters and other crowded... Workplace absences, and sales lost due to the cessation of brick-and-mortar retail shopping, air travel and public gatherings, contributed the most. At the height of the pandemic, in the second quarter of 2020, our survey indicates that international and domestic airline travel fell by nearly 60%, indoor dining by 65% and in-store shopping by 43%.

The Economic Cost Of The Pandemic State By State

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